A while ago, I made the claim that Oregon State University has the longest streak of consecutive years of fall-over-fall enrollment growth of any public, Research 1 university in America. A few people have asked me, not exactly doubting the claim, but thinking maybe I had made a mistake, for the source of it. This started as a curiosity: I knew from our own internal documentation that the last time OSU (the oldest OSU...not the one in Ohio or Oklahoma) had a fall-to-fall enrollment drop was 1996, and I was curious to see if any other institution could make that claim. So I went to the IPEDS Data Center and downloaded the data. It's below. First, a few points: My comparison group is 108 Public, four-year, Research 1 Universities as designated by the Carnegie Commission on Higher Education as of Fall, 2022, the latest IPEDS data available. The R1 designation is actually called "Doctoral Institutions: Very High Research Activity" but the nickname R1 is a holdover from
Graduation rates are always a hot topic in higher education, but often for the wrong reason. To demonstrate, I offer my parents. Here is a portrait of Agnes and Mark, married May 4, 1946. One night while I was talking to my brother, he asked, "Do you think mom was the way she was because dad was the way he was, or do you think dad was the way he was because mom was the way she was?" To which I replied, "yes." My point, of course, is that in complex relationships, it's always difficult--impossible, actually--to detangle cause and effect. And, despite the Student Affairs perspective that graduation rates are a treatment effect, I maintain that they are actually a selection effect. As I've written about before , it's pretty easy to predict a college's six-year graduation rate if you know one data point: The mean SAT score of the incoming class. That's because the SAT rolls a lot of predictive factors into one index number. These include acade